VA-05: Perriello Closing the Gap, Goode Under 50

Two polls confirm it — Democrat Tom Perriello is making some big progress in his race against crumb-bum Republican Rep. Virgil Goode.

Benenson Strategy Group for Tom Perriello (10/7-9, likely voters, July in parens)

Tom Perriello (D): 40 (31)

Virgil Goode (R-inc): 48 (56)

Undecided: 14 (12)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

On Wednesday, SurveyUSA released a poll showing Perriello trailing Goode by 55-42, a steep decline from Goode’s 64-30 lead in August. This is a tough, culturally conservative R+5.6 district that includes the very liberal pocket of Charlottesville. It’s unlikely that Perriello will find a great deal of Obama coattails here, but then again, SUSA’s latest polling had Obama ahead or tied in all four major regions of Virginia (admittedly, this doesn’t mean that Obama is ahead in the 5th).

Perriello is running a solid, smart campaign so far by all indications. I’m not sure if it will be enough to break Goode’s grip on the district, but this is the stiffest fight that the GOP has had here in quite some time.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

7 thoughts on “VA-05: Perriello Closing the Gap, Goode Under 50”

  1. Sorry folks — it looks like we had some server problems for about an hour or so there. We seem to be back at full strength now, though.

  2. I think this is a winnable district. Perriello is running some great ads like these



    Which I think are going to hurt Goode is a major way. It may be a culturally conservative district but it’s also a district that’s been very effected by the hard economic times and I think that’s going to win out over cultural concerns.

    One thing we know is that Perriello’s ads are working. As his name rec goes up (meaning people have seen his ads) his numbers have shot up.

    So donate to him so he can stay on the air and win this district.

  3. I thought this race was a pipedream, but if Obama can maintain his current 10 pt+ margin in the Commonwealth, anything is possible, and incumbents like Goode, Thelma Drake, and even Frank Wolf might be in danger.  

  4. Charlottesville and Albemarle County are at the extreme northern edge of this district which spreads all the way to the NC border.  Only 21% of the district’s voters are from these locales (Charlottesville is an incorporated city).  Some of those neighborhoods are undoubtedly Republican.  They reek of old money or money earned elsewhere and full scale pretension.  It’s the type of place where no one will have claimed to have farted in at least 20 years.  Nuff said.

    Take a bet.  The “city” with the most voters in this district is not cosmoploitan Charlottesvelle ,(25,969) but Danville (28,138) far to the south.  A place only slightly faniliar from a line from an old country song (“It’s a mighty rough road from Lynchburg to Danville”) called the Wreck of the Old 97.  Better known towns: Appamattox amd Martinsville, home of NASCAR races.

    Goode’s edge last time was 40,000 votes.  In fact, Albert Weed pushed him back a bit from a 27% victory margin in 2002 and 2004 to 20% in 2006.  IIRC, 270,000 votes were cast in 2004 abd 239,000 in 2006 not a huge difference (less than the normal drop.  

    Closing in would be expected.  M aking a battle of it shows incredible weaknesses in the GOP base.

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